Model Predictions
Model vs Hard Rock Bet lines. Total Pick and Spread Pick name the side the model leans toward at the current line — e.g. "Stanford +24.5" — with the edge in points and the calibrated probability of that pick underneath. Picks with 2+ points of edge are highlighted. Pick a date below; past dates show final scores. Click a column header to sort.
Mon 9/7 (1)
Fri 9/11 (2)
Sat 9/12 (47)
Thu 9/17 (1)
Fri 9/18 (2)
Sat 9/19 (54)
Thu 9/24 (1)
Fri 9/25 (4)
Sat 9/26 (53)
Thu 10/1 (2)
Fri 10/2 (3)
Sat 10/3 (51)
Tue 10/6 (1)
Wed 10/7 (2)
Thu 10/8 (4)
Fri 10/9 (5)
Sat 10/10 (46)
Tue 10/13 (2)
Wed 10/14 (2)
Thu 10/15 (3)
Fri 10/16 (3)
Sat 10/17 (49)
Tue 10/20 (3)
Wed 10/21 (1)
Thu 10/22 (3)
Fri 10/23 (5)
Sat 10/24 (44)
| Kick (CT) | Matchup | Final | Pred Total | HR Total | Total Pick | Pred Margin | HR Spread | Spread Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:00 PM | Sam Houston @ Liberty | 3–35 (38 U) | 58.7 | 52.5 |
Over 52.5 ✗ LOST edge 6.2 · 50.5% |
+26.7 | -13.5 |
Liberty -13.5 ✓ WON edge 13.2 · 52.6% |
| 6:00 PM | Missouri State @ Western Kentucky | 13–34 (47 U) | 54.2 | 55.5 |
Under 55.5 ✓ WON edge 1.3 · 54.2% |
-3.3 | -1.5 |
Missouri State +1.5 ✗ LOST edge 4.8 · 50.9% |
| 6:30 PM | South Alabama @ Arkansas State | 56–49 (105 O) | 59.7 | 57.5 |
Over 57.5 ✓ WON edge 2.2 · 50.2% |
+1.1 | -1.5 |
South Alabama +1.5 ✓ WON edge 0.4 · 50.9% |
| 6:30 PM | South Florida @ UTSA | 24–31 (55 O) | 50.9 | 52.5 |
Under 52.5 ✗ LOST edge 1.6 · 54.2% |
+0.8 | -6.5 |
South Florida +6.5 ✗ LOST edge 5.7 · 50.9% |
Model: model_2026-09-27_v1 generated 2026-10-05 12:00:33 UTC. Final format: away–home (total, O/U vs the line at prediction time).