Closing Line Value
The headline metric. A position is any prediction with ≥ 2.0 points of edge at generation time; CLV is how far the Hard Rock Bet line moved from the position's line to close, in the direction the model leaned. Consistently positive CLV means the model sees information before the market finishes pricing it.
Realized CLV:
+0.24 pts/position
· 42 positions · 28.6% beat the close
| Game | Market | Edge | Line @ position | Close | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Atlantic @ Florida | Total Under | -6.0 | 58.5 | 58.5 | +0.0 |
| Florida Atlantic @ Florida | Spread Away | -10.8 | -26.5 | -25.5 | -1.0 |
| Clemson @ LSU | Total Under | -2.9 | 50.5 | 48.5 | +2.0 |
| Clemson @ LSU | Spread Away | -10.5 | -9.5 | -10.5 | +1.0 |
| UL Monroe @ Mississippi State | Spread Away | -2.4 | -28.5 | -28.5 | +0.0 |
| Western Michigan @ Michigan | Spread Away | -15.6 | -27.5 | -27.5 | +0.0 |
| Florida International @ South Florida | Total Over | +3.2 | 51.5 | 53.5 | +2.0 |
| Missouri State @ Texas A&M | Spread Away | -13.0 | -40.5 | -40.5 | +0.0 |
| Sam Houston @ Troy | Total Under | -2.2 | 53.5 | 53.5 | +0.0 |
| Wyoming @ Colorado State | Total Over | +3.2 | 46.5 | 46.5 | +0.0 |
| Wyoming @ Colorado State | Spread Home | +3.0 | -3.5 | -2.5 | +1.0 |
| Northern Illinois @ Iowa | Total Over | +6.0 | 44.5 | 44.5 | +0.0 |
| Northern Illinois @ Iowa | Spread Away | -6.2 | -31.5 | -31.5 | +0.0 |
| Oklahoma State @ Tulsa | Total Under | -5.9 | 58.5 | 57.5 | +1.0 |
| Oklahoma State @ Tulsa | Spread Home | +24.9 | 13.5 | 13.5 | +0.0 |
| Boston College @ Cincinnati | Total Over | +3.4 | 49.5 | 51.5 | +2.0 |
| Baylor @ Auburn | Total Under | -9.4 | 59.5 | 58.5 | +1.0 |
| Tulane @ Duke | Spread Away | -2.2 | -7.5 | -9.5 | +2.0 |
| Boise State @ Oregon | Spread Away | -4.3 | -24.5 | -24.5 | +0.0 |
| Texas State @ Texas | Total Under | -5.1 | 59.5 | 60.5 | -1.0 |
| Texas State @ Texas | Spread Away | -16.6 | -29.5 | -29.5 | +0.0 |
| Marshall @ Penn State | Total Over | +2.7 | 51.5 | 52.5 | +1.0 |
| Marshall @ Penn State | Spread Away | -3.0 | -22.5 | -22.5 | +0.0 |
| Kent State @ South Carolina | Spread Away | -8.1 | -36.5 | -35.5 | -1.0 |
| Miami (OH) @ Pittsburgh | Spread Away | -4.3 | -16.5 | -16.5 | +0.0 |
| Ball State @ Ohio State | Total Under | -5.1 | 56.5 | 55.5 | +1.0 |
| Ball State @ Ohio State | Spread Away | -14.8 | -50.5 | -49.5 | -1.0 |
| Coastal Carolina @ West Virginia | Total Under | -3.9 | 54.5 | 54.5 | +0.0 |
| Coastal Carolina @ West Virginia | Spread Away | -13.8 | -21.5 | -20.5 | -1.0 |
| Liberty @ James Madison | Spread Home | +2.3 | -6.5 | -5.5 | +1.0 |
| Ohio @ Nebraska | Total Over | +3.2 | 46.5 | 46.5 | +0.0 |
| Ohio @ Nebraska | Spread Away | -12.6 | -23.5 | -23.5 | +0.0 |
| Oregon State @ Houston | Spread Away | -8.0 | -21.5 | -20.5 | -1.0 |
| East Carolina @ Alabama | Total Under | -3.1 | 52.5 | 52.5 | +0.0 |
| East Carolina @ Alabama | Spread Away | -15.7 | -28.5 | -28.5 | +0.0 |
| North Texas @ Indiana | Spread Away | -19.2 | -39.5 | -40.5 | +1.0 |
| Fresno State @ USC | Spread Away | -2.4 | -21.5 | -21.5 | +0.0 |
| Miami @ Stanford | Total Over | +4.5 | 46.5 | 46.5 | +0.0 |
| Miami @ Stanford | Spread Home | +16.1 | 24.5 | 24.5 | +0.0 |
| Toledo @ Michigan State | Spread Away | -9.2 | -9.5 | -9.5 | +0.0 |
| UTEP @ Oklahoma | Spread Away | -14.7 | -41.5 | -41.5 | +0.0 |
| San José State @ Eastern Michigan | Spread Home | +9.0 | -1.5 | -1.5 | +0.0 |