Model Performance — The Honest Scoreboard

Live Pick Record

Every pre-kickoff pick, graded against the line at prediction time and frozen — never regraded. Break-even at standard −110 pricing is 52.4%; a win rate below that loses money even while above 50%.

Bucket	Totals W–L–P	Win %	Spreads W–L–P	Win %
All picks	0	50.9%	0	50.5%
Edge ≥ 2	0	49.7%	0	52.5%
Edge ≥ 4	0	46.9%	0	48.6%
Edge ≥ 7	0	50.0%	0	51.1%

By week

Season	Week	Market	W–L–P
2026	8	total	3–1–0
2026	8	spread	2–2–0
2026	7	total	27–26–0
2026	7	spread	30–23–0
2026	6	total	29–26–0
2026	6	spread	28–27–0
2026	5	total	21–27–0
2026	5	spread	27–20–0
2026	4	total	26–29–0
2026	4	spread	27–28–0
2026	3	total	28–13–0
2026	3	spread	23–18–0
2026	2	total	20–16–0
2026	2	spread	16–20–0
2026	1	total	14–24–0
2026	1	spread	13–25–0

Total 2020 excluded

Model RMSE 16.51 vs Closing Line RMSE 15.79 · diff -0.72 [-0.89, -0.55] · n=3944

The closing line wins. No edge on this market overall.

Holdout Season	n	Model RMSE	Closing Line RMSE	Diff (95% CI)
2021	770	17.50	16.00	-1.50 [-1.97, -1.02]
2022	776	16.50	15.34	-1.16 [-1.56, -0.76]
2023	792	16.28	15.84	-0.44 [-0.78, -0.10]
2024	798	16.35	16.21	-0.14 [-0.43, +0.15]
2025	808	15.94	15.55	-0.39 [-0.71, -0.07]

Segment breakdown (potential bet filters)

conf_tier

Segment	n	Model RMSE	Market RMSE	Model wins?
G5vG5	1641	16.94	16.22	no
P4vG5	594	16.57	15.87	no
P4vP4	1709	16.07	15.34	no

week_band

Segment	n	Model RMSE	Market RMSE	Model wins?
wk1-4	1234	16.75	16.10	no
wk5-9	1338	16.39	15.46	no
wk10+	1372	16.41	15.83	no

wind_band

Segment	n	Model RMSE	Market RMSE	Model wins?
calm	3215	16.61	15.99	no
10-15	599	16.25	14.94	no
15-20	118	15.25	14.52	no

total_band

Segment	n	Model RMSE	Market RMSE	Model wins?
<45	552	15.41	13.84	no
45-52	1249	16.39	15.90	no
52-59	1316	16.30	15.69	no
59+	827	17.70	16.96	no

fav_band

Segment	n	Model RMSE	Market RMSE	Model wins?
pickem-3	827	17.07	15.89	no
3-7	1028	16.96	16.21	no
7-14	1015	16.81	16.35	no
14+	1074	15.32	14.74	no

Margin 2020 excluded

Model RMSE 16.43 vs Closing Line RMSE 15.29 · diff -1.14 [-1.33, -0.95] · n=3944

The closing line wins. No edge on this market overall.

Holdout Season	n	Model RMSE	Closing Line RMSE	Diff (95% CI)
2021	770	17.14	15.59	-1.54 [-2.03, -1.07]
2022	776	16.48	15.28	-1.20 [-1.66, -0.76]
2023	792	16.06	15.20	-0.86 [-1.27, -0.46]
2024	798	16.49	15.38	-1.11 [-1.49, -0.73]
2025	808	16.01	15.01	-1.00 [-1.39, -0.62]

Segment breakdown (potential bet filters)

conf_tier

Segment	n	Model RMSE	Market RMSE	Model wins?
G5vG5	1641	16.60	15.61	no
P4vG5	594	17.52	14.98	no
P4vP4	1709	15.87	15.09	no

week_band

Segment	n	Model RMSE	Market RMSE	Model wins?
wk1-4	1234	17.14	15.15	no
wk5-9	1338	15.88	15.09	no
wk10+	1372	16.32	15.60	no

wind_band

Segment	n	Model RMSE	Market RMSE	Model wins?
calm	3215	16.41	15.25	no
10-15	599	16.66	15.56	no
15-20	118	16.43	15.11	no

total_band

Segment	n	Model RMSE	Market RMSE	Model wins?
<45	552	15.85	14.84	no
45-52	1249	16.39	15.45	no
52-59	1316	16.40	15.23	no
59+	827	16.93	15.45	no

fav_band

Segment	n	Model RMSE	Market RMSE	Model wins?
pickem-3	827	15.99	15.16	no
3-7	1028	16.23	15.07	no
7-14	1015	16.39	15.50	no
14+	1074	17.01	15.40	no